If you are reading this, you probably spent a good chunk of 2025 asking the same question everyone else was: "Is the market going to crash?"
For the last three years, we have been riding a rollercoaster of volatility. We saw rates double, inventory vanish, and buyers freeze in their tracks. And frankly, it was exhausting for everyone.
But as we look at the data for the beginning of 2026, I have some good news. The forecast for this year isn’t "Boom," and it isn’t "Bust."
It’s Normal. And honestly, "normal" is exactly what we need.
Here is what the shift means for you, whether you are trying to buy or sell in the OC and Riverside areas this year.
The Rate Reality: 6% is the New Normal
Let’s rip the band-aid off. We are likely not going back to 3% interest rates this year. Or next year. Most major forecasts (Fannie Mae, MBA) are pinning the 2026 average mortgage rate in the low-6% range (likely bouncing between 6.0% and 6.5%).
Why is this good news? Because certainty creates confidence. In 2025, buyers were terrified that rates would jump to 8%. Now that rates have settled, the "wait and see" crowd is starting to wake up. They are realizing that marrying the house and dating the rate (refinancing later if it drops to 5.5%) is a safer bet than putting their life on hold for another year.
The "Inventory Squeeze" is Easing (Slightly)
The other big shift we are seeing in North Orange County is the thawing of the "Lock-In Effect."
For a long time, nobody sold their home because they didn't want to trade a 3% mortgage for a 7% one. But life goes on. People are having babies, getting new jobs, or retiring. The pain of staying in a house that doesn't fit is finally outweighing the pain of the interest rate.
We are seeing more listings hit the market in Fullerton, Orange, and Yorba Linda than we did at this time last year. It’s not a flood, but it’s a steady stream.
The "Winter Window" Opportunity
Here is my biggest piece of advice for 2026: Do not wait for Spring.
Traditionally, everyone waits until April to list their home or start buying. That creates a massive bottleneck.
- If you are a Buyer: Right now (January/February), you have less competition. If rates dip even slightly in March, the bidding wars will return.
- If you are a Seller: Listing now means you stand out. By May, you will be one of ten homes for sale in your neighborhood. Today, you might be the only one.
The North OC vs. IE Dynamic
The gap is still there, but it’s shifting.
- North OC: Prices are remaining "sticky" (flat or slightly up). You aren't going to get a steal, but you probably won't face 20 offers like you did in 2022.
- Inland Empire: This is where the volume is. Corona, Eastvale, and Riverside are seeing more healthy inventory levels. If you are looking for a deal or seller credits (to buy down your interest rate), the 91 Corridor is still your best bet.
The Bottom Line
2026 is going to be the year of the "Serious Mover." The speculators and the flippers are mostly gone. The people in the market today are moving because they want to build a life, not just a portfolio.
If you have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a sign, this is it. The market is stable, safe, and open for business.
Let’s sit down and look at your specific numbers. I can run a "2026 Equity Check" on your current home, or help you map out a monthly payment that actually fits your budget. Call or text me at [PHONE_EN]. Let's make 2026 the year you finally make your move.
Frequently Asked Questions
It is unlikely. Most economists predict modest appreciation (around 2-4%) for Southern California. Inventory is rising, but there is still far more demand than supply in desirable areas like North Orange County, which keeps a "floor" under prices.
Trying to time the market is risky. If you buy now and rates drop later, you can refinance. If you wait for rates to drop, you risk home prices rising and competition increasing, which could cost you more than the higher interest rate would have.